Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart open by unpacking the newly signed Mecca joint defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, dubbed an "Islamic NATO" by some Indian media. They explore how the pact reflects declining confidence in American security guarantees following the US strike on Iran, discuss the lack of any NATO-style command structure behind it, and debate whether Pakistan's nuclear status could extend an informal umbrella to its new partners. They also range across the shifting balance of economic power between Western and Gulf states since 1989, and the reactions of India, Iran and Israel to the new alliance.
The second half turns to Russia's hybrid warfare against Europe, including an explosive-laden drone found at Leipzig Airport and hundreds of drone sightings across NATO countries, alongside falling supplies of Patriot air-defence missiles to Ukraine and heavy US expenditure on munitions during the Iran conflict. They discuss Russian battlefield losses, the depletion of American Patriot stockpiles across South Korea and the Middle East, and a strange spillover of drone warfare into organised crime, from Colombian cartels to mercenaries operating in Sudan and Yemen. The episode closes with a nod to AI's role in shortening the "kill chain" in modern conflict.
Personnel
Key points from the discussion
The points they raised, and the official data behind them.
Campbell said the Iran conflict has cost the US up to around $40 billion in munitions and operations.
~21 min inContext
The figure refers to costs the US has incurred during its military engagement with Iran, including munitions expenditure during strikes and air-defence operations. It was raised alongside reports that the Pentagon was seeking additional funding from Congress, with hosts linking this to strain on US Patriot missile stockpiles.
Campbell cited Zelensky's statement that the number of air defence missiles provided to Ukraine by Western allies has dropped threefold in 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
~36 min inContext
Volodymyr Zelensky is the president of Ukraine. The figure was cited in the context of Ukraine's growing vulnerability to Russian missile strikes as Western military support, particularly of Patriot-type air-defence interceptors, has become strained by US commitments elsewhere, including the Iran conflict.
Campbell said that on a single Wednesday last week, Russia fired 28 missiles at Ukraine that Ukrainian forces failed to intercept.
~36 min inThe hosts cited CSIS reporting suggesting the US has used something like half of its Patriot missile stock.
~23 min inPatriot missiles are US-made air-defence interceptors designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles and aircraft.
Context
CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is a Washington-based think tank that publishes analysis on defence and security issues. The figure was discussed in the context of concern that US Patriot stockpiles, also relied upon by Ukraine and South Korea, are being depleted by the Iran conflict.
Campbell cited a figure of almost 100 drone sightings across 15 NATO countries in the two months following an incident that shut down two Scandinavian airports.
~45 min inContext
The figure follows an incident in which drone sightings forced the closure of two Scandinavian airports, part of a wider pattern of drone incursions the hosts linked to suspected Russian hybrid warfare testing European defences and response times.
Campbell cited a Colombian government estimate that cartels launched 264 drone attacks in the 2024-25 period.
~53 min inContext
The Colombian government tracks cartel drone use as part of its response to armed conflict involving drug trafficking groups. The figure was discussed as evidence that drone warfare technology developed in Ukraine is spreading into organised crime contexts.