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Has Burnham wasted his honeymoon?

Published 17 Sept 2026with George Osborne & Ed BallsListen to the episode ↗

This episode opens with the Federal Reserve's decision to raise US interest rates under chair Kevin Warsh, contrasted with the Bank of England's choice to hold rates steady despite rising UK inflation. The hosts discuss market expectations for future UK rate rises, the deteriorating outlook for the autumn budget, rising energy bills, and criticism from economic advisers Andy Haldane and Jim O'Neill of the Burnham government's economic messaging and fiscal credibility.

The conversation then moves to Canada, where Mark Carney has been positioning the country diplomatically amid tension with the US, including a surprise EU suggestion of associate membership for Canada. The hosts compare this to Britain's more cautious approach to foreign policy and economic strategy. Finally, they discuss the intensifying debate over AI safety and regulation, prompted by a high-profile resignation from Anthropic over safety concerns, competing statements from AI executives and Donald Trump, and proposals, including one from Carney, for new global regulatory bodies modelled on financial-crisis-era institutions.

Inflation

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The hosts discussed UK inflation rate (they cited just over 3%). For context, Trend's Inflation Rate series stands at 3.1 (2026-08), source Office for National Statistics, drawn from Trend's live data, not the episode. Explore the board →

Key points from the discussion

The points they raised, and the official data behind them.

  • The Federal Reserve raised its target range for interest rates to between 3.75% and 4%.

    ~06:11

    Context

    The Federal Reserve is the US central bank, and its Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the benchmark for US borrowing costs. Kevin Warsh (as discussed) chairs the committee, which voted unanimously for this rise.

  • The hosts noted US inflation is currently running at around 3.4%, above the Fed's 2% target.

    ~08:41

  • The hosts cited a survey of local government finance experts in which only 25% expected a quarter-point rise in UK interest rates over the next twelve months.

    ~12:00

  • The hosts noted the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted six to three to hold interest rates rather than raise them.

    ~12:26

    The Monetary Policy Committee is the Bank of England body that sets the UK's base interest rate.

    Source

    View source →

  • The hosts said UK inflation ticked up to just over 3%, above the Bank of England's 2% target.

    ~12:39

    Official figure · Inflation Rate

    3.12026-08 · Office for National Statistics
    Explore the board →Charted above

  • The hosts noted that UK employment is falling at its fastest rate since the COVID pandemic.

    ~14:47

    Official figure · Employment Rate

    75.1%2026-06 · Office for National Statistics · Labour Force Survey
    Explore the board →