James Heale talks to Nick Tyrone about his new book on Reform UK, written after spending time with the party's MPs, donors and grassroots activists across the country. Tyrone describes trying to write an even-handed account, contrasting the party's base in Westminster with what he found in places like Lincoln, Runcorn and the Northeast, where former Labour and Conservative voters alike have shifted towards Reform. He argues the party's activists are unusually enthusiastic compared with resigned Labour or Conservative supporters, and that traditional "ex-Tory" stereotypes about Reform's base don't hold up outside the South.
Much of the conversation compares Reform's trajectory with the SDP's brief 1980s surge, with Tyrone arguing Reform's local election gains and campaign infrastructure look more durable. He recounts interviews with Richard Tice, Robert Jenrick and Danny Kruger, describing Jenrick's visible hesitation before defecting from the Conservatives. The pair discuss polling swings across 2025 and 2026, the party's improving campaign machinery, and issues such as migrant hotels driving activist anger. They close by weighing Reform's prospects ahead of the 2027 local elections and a possible general election squeeze on the Conservative vote.
Key points from the discussion
The points they raised, and the official data behind them.
The hosts said Reform UK led in every national opinion poll for roughly a year to eighteen months, from spring 2025 until a point associated with Andy Burnham's rise in prominence.
~4:14The hosts recalled that Reform UK polled around 31-32% during a strong summer period before dropping back to around 25%.
~8:47The hosts said Reform UK is expected to field around 10,000 candidates in the May 2027 local elections.
~17:53The hosts described Reform UK as currently polling steadily at around 24-25%, which they characterised as the party's weakest point this parliament.
~19:10The hosts noted that in the early 1980s the SDP briefly polled around 50% of the vote before fading.
~3:41Context
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) was founded in 1981 by breakaway Labour MPs and briefly surged in the polls before its support collapsed, partly attributed in the discussion to the Falklands War boosting the Conservatives.